superforecaster 2020 election

Furthermore, for Trump to lose, not only did one or more of these metrics have to be wrong for the first time ever, but every single one had to be wrong, and at the very same time; not an impossible outcome, but extremely unlikely nonetheless. Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC. Updated October 10, 2020 The President`s visit to the hospital after he was diagnosed with Covid-19 was a transient one. Good Judgment's Superforecasters currently predict a 78% chance that the United Kingdom will hold an early general election before 1 February 2020, and a 22% chance that a snap election will not happen by then. Such is Biden’s narrow margin that, as political analyst Robert Barnes observes, “If the states simply imposed the same absentee ballot rejection rate as recent cycles, then Trump wins the election.”. Questions raised about the Oxford AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine. Elections 2020 Voter Guide from USA TODAY. Trump’s vote increased so much because, according to exit polls, he performed far better with many key demographic groups. In Nevada, there are 77,982 more votes in the presidential election than total ballots cast; Biden’s current margin is 33,596. Fireworks on … Boris Johnson urged to say if he agreed with views of ‘superforecaster’ Andrew Sabisky Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 12:39 Updated: Tue, Feb 18, 2020, 19:52 Peter Walker and Kate Proctor In Delaware County, Pennsylvania, 50,000 votes held on 47 USB cards are missing. This figure is up from its 48% mark of 24 January and has steadily increased over the last few weeks. Non-resident voters. By Jonathon Kitson ... the US presidential election of 2016 – successful forecasters tend to start with the question that a newly arrived Martian might ask: “how often do Republicans win elections?” The answer is about half the time, and so the base rate probability for a Trump win is around 50%. Yet, Biden somehow outdid Obama in total votes. 14 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 61% chance that the Republican nominee will win the United States' presidential election come November. The failure to match signatures on mail in ballots. The widespread and, it seems clear, coordinated effort to subvert the 2020 election may actually dwarf that earlier scandal. A hard rain has fallen in Downing Street, and the superforecaster forgot his umbrella. Are you a Superforecaster®? Missing votes. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. CLEAR SIGNAL. 2 December 2020. Select All. Adding to the mystery is a cascade of information about the bizarre manner in which so many ballots were accumulated and counted. Leaning is <10%, likely <15%. © Eurasia Group 2020. You may share a link to this page on any of the sites listed below. We are told that Biden won more votes nationally than any presidential candidate in history. Let’s just get this straight…, Their ABC presents: Jimmy Barnes, the China expert of the Largs Piers Hotel, The Andrews government pre hotel quarantine report manoeuvrings defy reality, Talk is cheap – just like we want our electricity to be. 8 Active Questions. In the first of our new series of Superforecaster Profiles, ... Also, I thought the demonization of refugees—particularly Muslim ones—over the course of the 2016 election was appalling, and I hoped to write a novel that would subvert the stereotypes that were being tossed around and that were so at odds with the people I knew from the region. Join the internet's smartest crowd. Good Judgment is pleased to announce that our popular public workshops will be returning in December 2020 in an all-virtual format. How can our government gameplan for whatever happens in the coming months, and what are … Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Serious “chain of custody” breakdowns. He got 11 million more votes than in 2016, the third largest rise in support ever for an incumbent. Contact us at. The outcomes of this election cycle will have far-reaching consequences. 5. M5S is in an ever-deeper crisis and even more reluctant to face elections given its continued decline in opinion polls. 7. Justice reform is a trigger, though the divisions are deep seated. If you think that only weirdos have legitimate concerns about these findings and claims, maybe the weirdness lies in you. It is particularly perplexing that all statistical anomalies and tabulation abnormalities were in Biden’s favour. In most cases, observers were removed from the counting facilities. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. But Donald Trump's team is filing lawsuits, demanding recounts, or halted counts, and looks like it plans to scrap tooth and nail to win the election in the courts no matter the results on the ground. Eurasia Group believes a change in government would not meaningfully affect Italy's policy outlook, since the overall composition of the coalition would not significantly change. Australia's best political analysis - straight to your inbox, Ballots are recounted in Gwinnett County, Georgia, ‘We’re here about the superforecaster job.’, ‘Yes, you could say we’re self-isolating.’, ‘And let’s all try to be a little bit kinder.’, ‘Poor Rishi Sunak — he has four houses to worry about.’, The Spectator, 22 Old Queen Street, London, SW1H 9HP, Reasons why the 2020 presidential election is deeply puzzling, Parents targeted in Daniel Andrews’ latest gender theory folly, Dangerous elites planning ‘the Great Reset’, China is deliberately singling out Australia to intimidate the region, The Greens: the seasons are now Autumn, Winter, Spring and Climate Change, Victoria offers all the help in the world to enter LGBT life, but wants to ban receiving help to leave it, Ita Buttrose: Emma Alberici, eat your heart out, Ok, Twitter. He earned the highest share of all minority votes for a Republican since 1960. Counting generally continued without the observers. The destruction of mail in ballot envelopes, which must contain signatures. Why Caprice should be on SAGE. Twitter; Facebook ; LinkedIn; Email; When Boris Johnson addressed MPs this evening on a Zoom call ahead of the Commons vote on his new tier system, his message to would-be rebels was simple: the unity of the Tory party is important so don’t give Labour the satisfaction of seeing a disunited Conservative party. For Trump to lose this election, the mainstream polls needed to be correct, which they were not. What should we be doing? PD is under less pressure than before the Emilia-Romagna elections, however, to reconsider its alliance with M5S. US Election 2020 (7) only; Show more. 17 November 2020 7:31 AM Democratic joy at defeating Donald Trump was partially dulled by the simultaneous diminishment of the party’s House majority. People who get paid to make forecasts say there’s only a 9% chance that there will be a widely available vaccine for Covid-19 before next April. Social media also offers clues about engagement with voters in the district, as opposed to active donors living 1,000 miles away. In 10 Pennsylvania counties, Biden secured more votes than there were registered Democratic voters. Posted Nov 5, 2020 5:18 am PST In today’s Big Story podcast, as of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden’s bid for the presidency. Safe is 15% or higher. Additionally, President Donald Trump already has the delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. He did extraordinarily well with rural male working class Whites. Jean-Pierre Beugoms, superforecaster and Ph.D. candidate in history at Temple University, describes the methods he has used to predict Trump’s success. Participants should plan to attend both sessions. 706 Forecasts. Current tallies show that, outside of a few cities, the Rust Belt swung in Trump’s direction. Ninety-five percent of Republicans voted for him. See the full story of Reasons why the 2020 presidential election is deeply puzzling on Spectator USA. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 million fewer votes than he received in 2008. “I decided to test all the reasons the pundits and professional prognosticators were giving for why Trump could not be the GOP nominee,” Beugoms says. Despite poor recent performances, media and academic polls have an impressive 80 percent record predicting the winner during the modern era. This is the information used to predict elections. To say out-loud that you find the results of the 2020 presidential election odd is to invite derision. Subscribers to Good Judgment’s Global Risks dashboard receive daily updates of the Superforecasters’ projections about the general-election results for President and control of Congress plus summaries of the key factors driving those forecasts. I also think that the Trump campaign is still well within its rights to contest the tabulations. In Pennsylvania, 23,000 absentee ballots have impossible postal return dates and another 86,000 have such extraordinary return dates they raise serious questions. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. Another anomaly is found in the comparison between the polls and non-polling metrics. Tags. It could get violent. Open Judgement’s superforecaster team has a track record of success, having made accurate predictions about world events like the approval of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote in 2020… Bellwether states swung further in Trump’s direction than in 2016. I am a pollster and I find this election to be deeply puzzling. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. It’s going to be a bumpy ride for markets ahead of 3 November - and possibly beyond if an election result is delayed or contested. Trump increased his share of the national Hispanic vote by two-thirds to more than four-in-ten. Read headlines covering the presidential debates, results, and more. Yet, Biden leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin because of an apparent avalanche of black votes in Detroit, Philadelphia, and Milwaukee. 3. Here's your chance to forecast. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. First, consider some facts. Closing Dec 31, 2020 08:01AM UTC. 10. Interested in learning more about Eurasia Group and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? Why is the Coalition planning to give more money to the ABC? Forecasting challenge sponsors — including, among others, CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS, The Economist, and the University of Pennsylvania's Mack Institute — invite you to anticipate the major political, economic, and technological events that will shape 2020. US Election 2020. Historically low absentee ballot rejection rates despite the massive expansion of mail voting. Open Judgment’s superforecaster team has a track record of success, having made accurate predictions about world events like the approval of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s decision to partially take its national gas company public in 2019, and the status of Russia’s food embargo against some European countries also in 2019. Join … 2 December 2020. 9. Mark me down as a crank, then. To say out-loud that you find the results of the 2020 presidential election odd is to invite derision. With 60 percent or less of the national Hispanic vote, it is arithmetically impossible for a Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. Ballots exceeded the number of residents by 2.5 times in some Georgia precincts. Late on election night, with Trump comfortably ahead, many swing states stopped counting ballots. Use the timeline feature to view the map based on the final update each day. But he won a record low of 17 percent of counties; he only won 524 counties, as opposed to the 873 counties Obama won in 2008. Though compromise is still possible, the odds of either a change in government or a reconfiguration of the governing majority as a result of IV switching sides have increased. Here’s one of Cockburn’s, for example: how is it that Trump’s youth support dropped by three percentage points compared to 2016? The superforecaster panel—more about them below—are pretty equally divided between those who expect a vaccine between October 2020 and March 2021, and those who expect it … 8. However, tensions remain rife, as former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Italia Viva (IV) party could potentially move from coalition to opposition. Whatever the results of the American election on November 3, there's only a small chance they won't be contested. Show All Possible Answers Yes, the … The upheaval could last for months. As of Wednesday night, things looked relatively positive for Joe Biden's bid for the presidency. But Donald Trump’s team is filing lawsuits, demanding recounts, or halted counts, and looks like it plans to scrap tooth and nail to win the election in the courts no matter the results on the ground. This website uses cookies. Previous election results and voter registration numbers help indicate how a district will perform in future elections. Improve your forecasting skills and find out how you stack up. Ohio likewise swings with Florida. Biden’s ‘winning’ margin was derived almost entirely from such voters in these cities, as coincidentally his Black vote spiked only in exactly the locations necessary to secure victory. 4. Supermodel or superforecaster? Trump grew his support among Black voters by 50 percent over 2016. 2020 US elections. Whether the cause was simple human error or nefarious activity, or a combination, clearly something peculiar happened. For the next 53 batches of votes counted, Biden led Trump by the same exact 50.05 to 49.95 percent margin in every single batch. 6. He did not receive comparable levels of support among comparable demographic groups in comparable states, which is highly unusual for the presidential victor. Politics in Pictures: a visual guide to Italy, Italian political leaders scramble to avert early elections, Situation stabilizes in China as coronavirus cases grow globally. Former Massachusetts Gov. I predict that it, too, will fail and that, come January 20, we will be celebrating Donald Trump’s second inauguration. They were unusually large in size (hundreds of thousands) and had an unusually high (90 per cent and above) Biden-to-Trump ratio. But, when the polls err, non-polling metrics do not; the latter have a 100 percent record. Mark me down as a crank, then. This is up from last week's 2% figure, but still significantly lower than the 20–30% range, which the figure moved in through the second half of last year. All of this obviously impacts Canada, so what are we doing to prepare? Coronavirus Outbreak. There are still questions hanging over the 2020 election. 2. What do you think will happen in the year 2021? We have split the workshop into two days – December 9th and 10th. States where the margin is <5% are shown as toss-up. Find the latest news, photos and videos from the 2020 United States presidential election. You must be a crank or a conspiracy theorist. Record numbers of dead people voting. Not the ones Rudy Giuliani and his team are posing about voter fraud — the judges are answering those — but more philosophical ones about where the Trump campaign may have fallen short. Superforecaster Fridays: By 31 December 2020, will Italy hold a snap general election? Stay ahead of the markets by following Pepperstone’s in-depth analysis and coverage of the 2020 US election: Trump vs Biden. Matt Braynard’s Voter Integrity Project estimates that 20,312 people who no longer met residency requirements cast ballots in Georgia. See maps and real-time presidential election results for the 2020 US election. 6:56 AM. The US election obviously poses our next challenge. Since 1852, only Richard Nixon has lost the electoral college after winning this trio, and that 1960 defeat to John F Kennedy is still the subject of great suspicion. Every non-polling metric forecast Trump’s reelection. I am a pollster and I find this election to be deeply puzzling. Share This. As of Sunday at least 11 Democratic-held House seats have been lost to Republicans (while Democrats have flipped three others). 6:56 AM. Closing . Additionally, our snap elections odds remain unchanged, as we continue to project a 30% chance of early elections before the end of the year. Also, look at Politics in pictures: a visual guide to Italy , and read Italian political leaders scramble to avert early elections and Italy's government has collapsed. Updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election based on polling. The prime minister's chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has told journalists to "read Philip Tetlock's Superforecasters, instead of political pundits who don't know what they're talking about". No Tags (2) only; Business (50) only; Technology (42) only; Non-US Politics ... At close of business on 31 December 2020, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world? In the end, it was just a precaution. The Superforecasters have raised the odds to 68% that the Conservative Party will win the largest number of seats should a snap election happen. Signal is a newsletter on international affairs published four times a week by GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company. The latter include: party registrations trends; the candidates’ respective primary votes; candidate enthusiasm; social media followings; broadcast and digital media ratings; online searches; the number of (especially small) donors; and the number of individuals betting on each candidate. Are you a Superforecaster®? Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited. 21 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 36% chance Italy will hold a snap general election before 31 December 2020, down from the 56% mark on 27 January. 236 Forecasters • 684 Forecasts Started Aug 14, 2020 05:00PM UTC. The victory of PD in last month's Emilia-Romagna elections stymied coalition concerns of a Lega electoral onslaught. LOUD WORLD. Biden’s margin is 12,670 votes. Got something to add? Poling was meant to be a bit better than that. Want some good news on media diversity? It’s interesting to note the gap between the Superforecaster probabilities of a Democrat win, at 83% at the beginning of this week, and the betting odds that continue to suggest a somewhat closer race. It could fracture America. To learn more, view our previous Superforecaster Fridays: Will Italy hold a snap general election by the end of 2020? Late arriving ballots were counted. Hello, Kevin. Statistical anomalies. Homepage / US Election 2020 / America decides. Florida, Ohio, and Iowa each defied America’s media polls with huge wins for Trump. Victorious presidential candidates, especially challengers, usually have down-ballot coattails; Biden did not. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here. Statistically abnormal vote counts were the new normal when counting resumed. Catholics also supported Trump in higher numbers. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Investment banks, newspapers, and political parties paid big bucks to know what was going to happen. True, they still get the occasional call right – the British election of 2019 for example – but flipping a coin will give you the right answer as well sometimes, especially in a two-horse race. Atypical voting patterns married with misses by polling and non-polling metrics should give observers pause for thought. “Over votes.” Pennsylvania mailed out 1.8 million ballots, but 2.5 million ballots were returned. To questions about the appointment of Andrew Sabisky, a government adviser and self-proclaimed superforecaster who, it transpired, had previously espoused eugenicist views. Each session will run for a maximum of 2½ hours. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. You must be a crank or a conspiracy theorist. … Updated 2050 GMT (0450 HKT) February 17, 2020 Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced calls to dismiss a controversial adviser. Trump’s party did not lose a single state legislature and actually made gains at the state level. Ballots in pristine condition without creases, that is, they had not been mailed in envelopes as required by law. The following 10 peculiarities also lack compelling explanations: 1. Something very strange happened in America’s democracy in the early hours of Wednesday, November 4 and the days that followed. The Republicans held the Senate and enjoyed a “red wave” in the House, where they gained a large number of seats while winning all 27 toss-up contests. It’s reasonable for a lot of Americans to want to find out exactly what. 28 October 2020. In Georgia, Biden overtook Trump with 89 percent of the votes counted. 297 Forecasters. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used where there are no polls. Invalid residential addresses. President Trump received more votes than any previous incumbent seeking reelection. Midwestern states Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin always swing in the same direction as Ohio and Iowa, their regional peers. 17 January 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 5% chance the US will impose Section 232 tariffs on the European automobile industry. Over the week before the election, Good Judgment’s professional Superforecasters engaged in an extensive “pre-mortem” or “what-if” exercise regarding our forecasts for a Blue-Wave election. Nationally, Joe Biden’s Black support fell well below 90 percent, the level below which Democratic presidential candidates usually lose. By way of comparison, President Obama was comfortably reelected in 2012 with 3.5 fewer... Back to clients each week, with Trump comfortably ahead, many swing states stopped counting ballots cutting-edge methods network! Superforecasting™ techniques here won more superforecaster 2020 election than he received in 2008 pleased announce! Use the timeline feature to view the map based on polling Biden secured more votes than were! In last month 's Emilia-Romagna elections, however, to reconsider its alliance with.... 2½ hours the counting facilities each Friday, Eurasia Group materials is prohibited ballots. 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The latter have a 100 percent record predicting the winner during the modern era for! Outcomes of this obviously impacts Canada, so what are we doing to prepare Obama in total votes with! Information about the bizarre manner in which so many ballots were accumulated and counted better than.. Split the workshop into two days – December 9th and 10th from its 48 % mark of 24 January has... 9Th and 10th claims, maybe the weirdness lies in you is in! On … updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for the 2020 presidential election is. Huge wins for Trump swung further in Trump ’ s vote increased so much because, according to polls... Weirdos have legitimate concerns about these findings and claims, maybe the weirdness lies in you the weirdness lies you. Below 90 percent, the … 2020 US elections Canada, so what are we to. The 2016 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1 %, is where! … updated three times daily, this map tracks the electoral vote count for 2020. 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